What Nigeria Can Learn from Epidemiology
By Francis E. Madojemu
For many years, whenever Nigeria faces a major challenge, our first instinct is often to ask:
“What should government do?”
The question is understandable.
Government has responsibilities.
Security agencies have responsibilities.
Political leaders have responsibilities.
Yet history teaches us that some of society’s greatest challenges have never been solved by government alone.
Public health requires citizens.
Education requires families.
Economic development requires entrepreneurs.
Strong communities require active participation.
Security is no different.
Recently, I found myself reflecting again on an idea that first captured my attention many years ago while listening to a TED Talk by Dr. Gary Slutkin.
Slutkin’s work challenged conventional thinking about violence.
His research suggested that violence behaves much like a contagious disease.
At first, the comparison seems strange.
How can violence be compared to a virus?
Yet the more one examines the evidence, the more compelling the comparison becomes.
Violence spreads.
Fear spreads.
Retaliation spreads.
Criminal behaviour spreads.
Terrorism spreads.
Kidnapping spreads.
Like a disease outbreak, these problems often emerge in one location, move through established networks, exploit vulnerable environments, and eventually affect entire communities.
Around the same time, I encountered the work of Nathan Wolfe, often called a “virus hunter.”
Wolfe’s focus was not merely treating outbreaks after they occurred.
His focus was prediction.
Where is the next outbreak likely to emerge?
What conditions allow it to emerge?
What early warning signs appear before the crisis becomes visible?
That question may be one of the most important questions Nigeria should ask today.
Not:
Where was the last kidnapping?
But:
Where is the next kidnapping likely to occur?
Not:
Where was the last attack?
But:
What conditions are creating the next attack?
The epidemiologist studies outbreaks before they become disasters.
The security strategist should do the same.
Nigeria’s challenge is not only a security problem.
It is also a systems problem.
It is an intelligence problem.
It is an early-warning problem.
In recent years, kidnapping has expanded into locations that previously felt relatively safe.
Forests have become transmission corridors.
Criminal groups have adapted.
Communities have become fearful.
Schools have become vulnerable.
Entire regions have adjusted their behaviour because of insecurity.
This is precisely what epidemics do.
They change behaviour.
They alter normal life.
They create fear.
They weaken confidence.
They spread uncertainty.
The lesson from epidemiology is not simply that outbreaks happen.
The lesson is that outbreaks can be predicted, monitored, interrupted, and contained.
Public health experts use surveillance.
They map patterns.
They trace contacts.
They identify hotspots.
They intervene before widespread transmission occurs.
Imagine if communities approached security with the same discipline.
Imagine schools, churches, mosques, transport unions, farmers, market associations, estate associations, traditional rulers, and local governments becoming part of a coordinated early-warning network.
Not vigilantes.
Not militias.
Not mobs.
Observers.
Reporters.
Connectors.
Responsible citizens.
The goal is not confrontation.
The goal is awareness.
The goal is intelligence.
The goal is prevention.
One of the most important lessons from public health is that prevention is usually cheaper, safer, and more effective than treatment.
The same is true for security.
A nation that can detect danger early will often avoid the devastating costs of responding late.
This brings us to an important question.
What is the immune system of a nation?
In the human body, the immune system is not one organ.
It is a network.
Likewise, national security is not only the responsibility of the military, police, or intelligence agencies.
A healthy society possesses an immune system.
Families.
Schools.
Churches.
Mosques.
Community leaders.
Traditional institutions.
Responsible businesses.
Youth organisations.
Neighbourhood associations.
When these institutions are strong, they become part of society’s capacity to detect, resist, and recover from threats.
When they are weak, society becomes more vulnerable.
Perhaps one of the most urgent tasks before us is not merely building stronger security agencies.
Perhaps it is building stronger communities.
The future of Nigeria may depend not only on the strength of our armed forces, but on the strength of our social fabric.
Violence may be contagious.
But responsibility is contagious too.
Hope is contagious.
Courage is contagious.
Service is contagious.
The question before us is simple:
What are we spreading?
📌 Suggested Viewing & Research
Gary Slutkin TED Talk:
“Let’s Treat Violence Like a Contagious Disease”
https://www.ted.com/talks/gary_slutkin_let_s_treat_violence_like_a_contagious_disease
Gary Slutkin TED Transcript:
https://www.ted.com/talks/gary_slutkin_let_s_treat_violence_like_a_contagious_disease/transcript
Nathan Wolfe TED Talk:
“The Chilling Potential of a Human Pandemic”
https://www.ted.com/talks/nathan_wolfe_the_chilling_potential_of_a_human_pandemic
Cure Violence Global:
https://cvg.org
Knife Crime & Public Health Approaches:
https://insidetime.org/knife-crime-britain/
Additional Video:
https://youtu.be/QvS78MlAXAQ
Pastor Francis E. Madojemu
The Bridge Network City Church
Ibadan, Nigeria
